Lab-grown diamond pricing is a capacity story with a certificate attached. This report tracks the capacity build, the resulting price curves by size band, and the buying strategies that have held up this year: quarterly re-quoting, certificate-anchored negotiation and grade-band discipline.
Capacity and price direction
Growing capacity continued to expand, concentrated in CVD production for the 0.3-1.0 carat band. Price declines were steepest where capacity grew fastest, and slower in fancy shapes and above 2 carats where cutting capacity, not growth, is the constraint. Buyers should expect the 0.5-1.0 band to remain the most competitive and the most deflationary.
| Size band | Direction | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Melee under 0.10 ct | Down sharply | Surplus production capacity |
| 0.30-0.50 ct | Down 10-15% | CVD capacity build |
| 0.50-1.00 ct | Down 8-15% | Most liquid certified band |
| 1.00-2.00 ct | Down 5-10% | Selective demand |
| Fancy shapes | Down 3-8% | Cutting capacity constraint |
Buying strategy that survived the year
Buyers who quoted stones at PO with certificate numbers, bought inside a fixed grade band, and treated settings as a separate negotiation achieved the lowest blended cost increases despite deflation at stone level. The certificate is the commodity anchor; everything else is negotiable service.
